Avian Flu Update #23 21 NOV 06

It’s been just about a year since I wrote the original tome on Bird flu and 5 months since the last update.

Where do we stand?

In short, no better, no worse.

Well, maybe a little better, if anything.

As far as the virus is concerned, things really haven’t changed much in the past year. The threat hasn’t progressed. The virus has made it as far west as Turkey, but seems to have stalled there. Neither Europe nor Africa has had any real problems, except for an occasional dead bird.

Even in SEA, the number of cases is down. Vietnam, an earlier hotbed, hasn’t reported a case in a number of months.

People are still dying throughout SEA, especially in Indonesia, but they all have direct and long contact with birds in some way or other.

Scientists who study this virus have noted some changes, but nothing drastic. Dr Alan Hay, head of the World Influenza Centre at the National Institute for Medical Research said: "Things have been quiet for the last six months in most parts of the world. There is some evidence of variation in the strain, but there is no evidence the virus has an increased capacity to spread. We haven't seen any change." When everyone is awaiting that major shift that will allow this virus to infect humans more easily, "no change" is good!

At the same time, preparations continue for any future outbreak. Various companies are churning out anti-viral drugs at a frantic pace. Work continues on developing a vaccine to stop this virus.

The world as a whole remains ever-vigilant, watching and waiting for that change that may indeed never come.